HOW TO READ NBA ODDS

How to read NBA odds

NBA odds in the US are quoted in American format. A minus number is what you risk to win $100, and a plus number is what a $100 bet wins. At -150 you risk $150 to win $100, and at +150 a $100 bet wins $150.

Every price also implies a probability, and it’s quick to work out by hand. For a minus price, divide the odds by the odds plus 100, so -150 is 150 / 250, or 60%. For a plus price, divide 100 by the odds plus 100, so +150 is 100 / 250, or 40%.

A prediction market quotes a contract price. A contract at 60 cents pays $1 if it wins, which is a 60% implied chance and about -150 in American odds.

NBA point spreads

The spread is a handicap on the margin of victory. If a team is -6.5, a bet on it wins only if it wins by seven or more. The +6.5 side wins if that team wins outright or loses by six or fewer.

Spreads usually carry -110 on each side. NBA scoring is high and steady enough that the spread does most of the pricing work, so it moves more than the other two markets when news breaks.

NBA totals

A total is a bet on the combined score. With the total at 224.5, a 115-110 final adds up to 225 and the over wins. Who wins doesn’t matter.

Totals are mostly a pace question. Two teams that push the ball create more possessions, and more possessions mean more points, so a total that looks high for the names on the floor is often pricing tempo. At most sportsbooks, overtime counts toward full-game totals.

NBA moneylines

A moneyline is a bet on who wins, with no margin attached. With the favorite at -250 and the underdog at +200, $100 on the favorite wins $40 and $100 on the underdog wins $200.

Those two prices imply 71.43% and 33.33%, which add up to 104.76%. The 4.76 percentage points above 100% is the book’s margin.

What a bet costs

At -110, a bettor risks $110 to win $100, which implies 52.38%. With both sides at -110, the two add up to 104.76%, and that extra 4.76 percentage points is the vig. That’s why a bettor at -110 has to win about 52.4% of bets to break even.

A prediction market prices the same game from bettors’ orders, and its cost is a fee charged per contract, separate from the price. On Novig, pre-game straight bets carry no fee for either side, so a game both sides see as a coin flip can trade near even money, where break-even is 50%. Sportsbooks such as DraftKings and FanDuel still carry more alternate lines, same-game parlays and live markets per game.

What moves NBA lines

The injury report moves the NBA board more than anything else. Teams must list any player whose status is in doubt by 5 p.m. local time the day before a game, then file a game-day report between 11 a.m. and 1 p.m. local time. Reports update throughout the day, and a star who’s ruled out can move a spread by several points.

Rest is the second factor. For the second game of a back-to-back, the reporting deadline moves to 1 p.m. local time on game day, so that news lands closer to tip-off. The league’s player participation policy, in place since 2023-24, requires teams to make star players available for national TV and NBA Cup games unless they’re injured or excused, which makes those games less exposed to surprise rest days.

Travel and schedule density also show up in the price: a third game in four nights, or the end of a long road trip. Betting money moves lines too. An early bet buys a price before the day’s news lands, and it carries the risk of that news.

Frequently asked questions

What does -110 mean in NBA betting?

It means risking $110 to win $100, or any amount in the same ratio. It implies a 52.38% chance and is the standard price on NBA spreads and totals.

What does +6.5 mean in the NBA?

The team is a 6.5-point underdog. A bet on it wins if the team wins outright or loses by six or fewer.

Does overtime count in NBA bets?

At most sportsbooks, full-game spreads, totals and moneylines include overtime. First-half and quarter bets don’t.

When do NBA injury reports come out?

Teams must list doubtful players by 5 p.m. local time the day before a game and file a game-day report between 11 a.m. and 1 p.m. local time. For the second game of a back-to-back, the deadline is 1 p.m. local time on game day.

Why did an NBA line move so much on game day?

Usually injury or rest news. A star’s status can change a spread by several points, and in the NBA that news often arrives the afternoon of the game.